Portfolio Panic Simulator
Could you hold through the crash?
A percentage is easy to shrug off. Your own money disappearing isn't. Run your portfolio through a real market crash and see what it would actually feel like.
At the bottom, your portfolio is worth
$43,000
−$57,000 (-57%) from $100,000
To break even you need
+133%
That's like losing
41 months of rent or 1.2 new cars
Recovery clock
~4 years from the bottom to break even
17 months of grinding decline. Slow, exhausting despair. Every rally failed. The S&P 500 spent about 65 months below its old high.
What your brain does during a crash
Most people don't sell on day three. They sell after months of pain — usually near the bottom.
Decide now, while you're calm
- Cash buffer. Keep enough outside the market that you'll never be forced to sell at the bottom.
- Rebalancing rule. Pick a trigger (e.g. a 5% drift from target) and follow it mechanically.
- Sell criteria. Write down what would truly change your thesis — price falling isn't one of them.
Questions
How long does it take to recover from a 50% loss?
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. After the 2008 crisis the S&P 500 took roughly four years from its March 2009 bottom (about five and a half years from the 2007 peak) to regain its old high, before dividends. After the 2000 dot-com bust, the Nasdaq took about fifteen years.
Why do investors sell at the bottom?
Loss aversion makes losses feel about twice as painful as equal gains feel good. As a drawdown drags on, the pain compounds, and the urge to 'make it stop' peaks exactly when prices are lowest. Most people don't capitulate on day three — they capitulate after months of grinding losses.
How accurate is this simulator?
It applies approximate historical peak-to-trough price declines to each part of your allocation. Real assets didn't all bottom on the same day, dividends are excluded, and crypto didn't exist before 2009 — those crypto figures are hypothetical. Treat the result as a stress test for your nerves, not a backtest.
What should I do before the next crash?
Decide your rules while you're calm: how much cash you keep outside the market, when you rebalance, and what would genuinely make you sell. Write them down. A plan made before the crash is far more reliable than a decision made during one.
Educational only, not financial advice. Figures are approximate historical price declines excluding dividends.